A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
